Inflation hawks have been howling since the policy response to the dot.com crash of 2000 that a return to a 1970s style inflation was imminent. As reasonable as some of these expectations and arguments may sound, the reality is that inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has not materialized in any meaningful way. Average inflation from 2000 to 2009 was 2.54%. CPI from 2010 to 2019 was even lower than the century’s first decade at 1.75%.

Some of the hawks would argue that consumer price inflation has been replaced by asset price inflation, a process in which excess money flows to stock, bond and real estate prices rather than consumer prices.

If they are right, we may be facing an inflationary threat on two fronts. First, like the potential energy of water behind a dam, a pent-up “potential inflation” in the form of high asset valuations could flow to consumer prices. Second is yet another massive government fiscal response (and monetary co-operation) from the Federal Reserve in reaction to the COVID pandemic.

While the pandemic has inflicted significant economic damage, the policy response has been unprecedented even compared to past crises.

A recent Washington Post story notes that “the Fed and White House appear closely aligned on policy… With Powell at the Fed, and his predecessor Janet Yellen serving as treasury secretary, neither power center regards the potential dangers of overspending as a top concern.”

Though policy and lawmakers may not publicly show inflation concerns, there are troubling signs on the horizon.

The Wall Street Journal reports that manufacturing surveys indicate “global delivery times were the second-longest on record in February” and that “factories reported the sharpest rise in the prices they pay for inputs in almost a decade, and they in turn, raised the prices they charged.”

Another story in the Post – What used cars tell us about the risk of too much inflation hitting the economy, observes that used car prices “soared 17% nationally in seven months last year.” Though not as dramatic, the uptick in prices for food and appliances followed used cars.

Commercial Real Estate as a Hedge Against Inflation

Savvy investors have long used real estate to hedge against the effects of inflation on investment and savings. While location and physical structure are important components of valuation, rental income ultimately drives commercial real estate performance.

The ability to increase rents during inflationary periods with lease renewals is crucial. While other businesses may pass along price increases, they also face margin pressure as input costs rise. In other words, higher income is traded for higher expenses.

Commercial real estate enjoys the rising rents without the same pressure on operating costs. In addition, increasing labor and materials costs make competition for new real estate development less likely.

A 2011 research paper from the University of Pennsylvania Law School Institute for Law and Economics (ILE) authored by Bradford Case and Susan Wachter took a look at actual real estate investment returns in inflationary environments.

The ILE paper chose to focus on REIT returns based on the transparency of the information and the ability to measure performance in various property types. Of particular note are the findings regarding commercial real estate returns during 1974 to 1981, the type of environment that still strikes fear in those who lived through it.

“The period 1974-1981 was the most inflationary eight years in the history of the Consumer Price Index at 9.3% per year, but equity REIT returns easily preserved purchasing power, with income and total returns averaging 10.2% and 16.3% per year.”

The study notes that while commodities may provide the highest inflation protections during significant periods of inflation, they may lose substantial value in lower inflationary environments, while commercial real estate still provides strong return characteristics.

Thus, real estate benefits from both consumer price inflation and asset inflation. An investor is well-positioned whether a significant and scary inflation returns or a more modest rise in price levels occurs.

Which Property Types Fare Best in Reaction to Inflation?

The key factor for commercial real estate keeping up with inflation is lease terms.

Multifamily housing is particularly well suited for inflationary environments. With typical lease agreements of twelve months’ duration and tenants’ hesitancy to move due to the expense, lessors can generally obtain annual rent increases.

Another advantage that multifamily enjoys, though not particular to inflation, is that tenant risk is diversified. Retail and office properties are often dramatically impacted by a single tenant, while multifamily properties can have hundreds of units.

This is where a skilled property manager can add significant value for an investor. While vacancy is always part of the commercial real estate equation, managing the vacancy rate is a critical component of success. In fact, extremely low rates may indicate that rents are too low. Efficiently managing tenant turnover is another important aspect of effective property management.

Astute management and development may take advantage of emerging opportunities. The pandemic’s onset combined with existing demographic trends indicates there may be a window to convert distressed hotel properties (or nearly developed hotels) into senior living facilities.

Be Prepared

Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly spoken of a seemingly elusive 2% inflation target. With Democratic control of Congress and the Treasury and Fed in sync, investors should expect further inflationary policy.

But as history has shown, once the inflation genie is out of the bottle, it is near impossible to contain. Investors should have a plan to combat such forces to protect the purchasing power of their savings and wealth. One tactic may be an investment in commercial real estate and, in particular, multifamily housing. An experienced, professional commercial real estate development and management company can increase the chances of success when navigating potential turbulence.

Covid-19 has disrupted commercial real estate for the past year, but few asset classes have been hit as hard as the hospitality industry. From the early days of the pandemic, some senior living developers, investors and operators have said they anticipate opportunities to acquire and reposition hotel assets.

Although the availability of Covid-19 vaccines is raising hopes for a rebound in travel and tourism, when hotel business rebounds is a question no one has an answer for; some analysts expect a recovery to be similar to the “elongated recovery” predicted for senior living.

The uncertainty of a rebound in hospitality is leading some owners to weigh their options for redevelopment opportunities including senior housing. In Farmington Hills, Michigan, the owner of the Holiday Inn & Suites Farmington Hills – NW Detroit announced that it is repositioning the hotel into independent living after being shut down for nearly a year.

And in Bloomington, the owners and management of the Crowne Plaza Aire Hotel are preaching patience in a recovery before weighing redevelopment options which could include senior housing.

Senior living investors and developers are watching the distress in hotels with keen eyes. But due diligence will be essential, lest stakeholders rushing to reposition assets dig deeper holes, Canopy Lifestyles Partner and Chief Development Officer Dennis Stamey told Senior Housing News. The Marietta, Georgia-based company manages senior housing properties, and provides expertise for its clients on a range of issues, including repositionings.

“Someone really has to have an appetite for this,” he said. “They have to understand the timing that’s going to be required.”

Signs of distress emerge

A year into the pandemic, there are signs of distress in the hotel industry that could accelerate — especially if the vaccination effort does not build confidence that business and vacation travel will rebound quickly.

Among the emerging signs of distress: The owners of 43 hotels in the New York City metropolitan area were delinquent on a cumulative $1.5 billion in bonds as of October 2020. Lodging tax revenue for hotels in Bloomington, Minnesota, plummeted 33% in 2020, and are expected to remain below pre-pandemic levels this year.

Hotels across the country are laying off massive numbers of workers. Last week, the Four Seasons Silicon Valley in East Palo Alto, California permanently laid off 119 employees, San Francisco Business Times reported.

The pressure is building, as hotels require travel to generate revenues, which in turn allows owners to service the debt on their properties. Investors in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) loans backed by hotels are poised to see losses on their investments if hotels in a post-pandemic environment experience an elongated recovery.

Covid-19 is impacting luxury, full-service hotels especially hard. New York City’s legendary Roosevelt Hotel shut down last October. The owner of Chicago’s iconic Palmer House Hilton, the second-largest hotel in the city, is facing a foreclosure lawsuit claiming the firm defaulted on a $333.2 million mortgage.

Research from business management consultancy McKinsey suggests that a hotel recovery to pre-pandemic levels will not occur until 2023, if not later. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) specializing in hotels and hospitality are expected to underperform until business and vacation travel rebounds, which will not happen until vaccination efforts gain significant momentum.

So far, lenders have exercised patience with hotel owners, understanding the extreme circumstances that have befallen everyone, Lloyd Jones Capital Chairman and CEO Chris Finlay told SHN. Lloyd Jones is expanding in the senior living space with its Aviva brand, and Finlay is bullish on the opportunity to acquire and convert hotel — but, he notes that a wave of bank foreclosures is not likely in the near term.

Bank lenders have ample liquidity on their balance sheets, as a result of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tighten lending regulations well in the years prior to the pandemic.

When the first wave of Covid-19 cases swept across the country last year, lenders were quick to retreat to the sidelines and let the market settle before gradually returning to the space. But tighter loan underwriting remains in place, along with an imbalance between the debt and equity markets — bridge debt, in particular, is hard to close. And most banks are only servicing existing clients with proven track records of success.

Finlay credits this to the Fed’s proactive efforts to shield the economy from extreme distress during the pandemic’s early weeks. It has signaled to banks that it will support them through Covid-19’s end, and will not suddenly change course.

“It’s not like it was in past downturns, where banks were on shaky footing to start with,” he said. “All of the major banks and even most of the regional banks are very well-capitalized now.”

CMBS markets have been relatively patient, as well, but ratings agencies are maintaining a close watch for any signs of loans turning over to special servicers, which would mainly impact the futures of full-service hotels such as the Palmer House. But there is volatility: the delinquency rate among hotels with CMBS loans last September was a record 33.5%, compared to just 2.5% in April 2020, according to data from real estate research firm Trepp, reported by the law firm Levenfield Pearlstein.

What happens to hotels with delinquent CMBS debt will depend on several factors including legal options on the part of owners, the patience of lenders, and the pace of recovery. Smaller hotels saddled with CMBS loans may become solid repositioning opportunities, if distress gains momentum.

“The question [for CMBS servicers] is, how aggressive do they want to be?” Finlay said. “If the hotel is closed, there is not much for them to do. They have to start the process.”

Click link for full story: https://seniorhousingnews.com/2021/03/11/senior-housing-adaptive-reuse-opportunities-materialize-amid-hotel-distress/

Tod Petty:
Welcome to the February 2021 podcast of Senior Housing Unfiltered‪. I’m your host, Tod Petty. Each month, I have the privilege of teaming up at Lloyd Jones Senior Living to change an industry stuck in ancient cultures. We are passionate about the Senior Housing space and are committed to not leaving the industry the way we found it. I’m excited today about introducing to you, our quest, to understand how to deliver successful aging in our Senior Housing communities. Over the next few podcasts, I’m going to identify eight essential elements built into each one of our Senior Housing communities. These elements allow the opportunity for our residents to successfully age by the deployment of very specific strategies to fight inflammation, improve cognitive health, improve diet and fitness for pain relief, blood pressure, cholesterol management, and so much more. Let’s introduce the eight elements and then we’ll go directly to our presentation for today.‬‬‬‬

The eight essential elements in our wellness program consists of the following: positive psychology, sensory design, progressive engineered environments, brain health nutrition, movement, medication delivery, sleep, and last, but not least, hydration. I’ll be introducing two components today as we speak with Olivia Beaton, editor of Senior Living News. The first component we’ll be discussing is digital signage and the second component will be aromatherapy. Digital signage influences the ocular system and aromatherapy influences the outcome of the olfactory system in human physiology. Both components are very important in our state management for our clients at our communities. Ladies and gentlemen, sit back and enjoy the next 20 minutes as we take you on a journey to deliver and discover successful aging and elements of our sensory design category. We’ll be right back after the show.

Olivia Beaton:
Hi everyone. Welcome back. This is Olivia Beaton, editor at Senior Community Forum, and I am so excited today to be joined by Jimmy Carrion, VP of business development and Tod Petty executive vice president from Lloyd Jones Senior Living. And we’re going to be discussing various things, but specifically successful aging. Thank you so much for both joining me today.

Jimmy Carrion:
Thanks for having us.

Tod Petty:
Hey, Olivia it’s nice to be with you and nice to be with the audience today.

Olivia Beaton:
Thank you so much. Just to start off. Would you both mind telling me a little bit about your background and how you ended up in senior living?

Jimmy Carrion:
Yeah, I can go first. So Jimmy here, I actually started in the construction startup world and then moved into hospitality. So I was a part of the OYO Group and helped them franchise and grow in the U.S and last summer I joined Lloyd Jones Senior Living and found a real passion for working in the senior housing world and really trying to change and implement more of this successful aging into every community.

Olivia Beaton:
Absolutely. Well, I’m glad you ended up here in senior living. How about you, Tod?

Tod Petty:
Yeah. So first part of my career, I was in home health and started several companies with entrepreneurs and then started my home health company, which I sold to Lincare out of Clearwater and then stayed with Lincare Holdings for about five years. And then I entered the senior housing space. So I’ve been here about 20 years now, and I guess where I’m most well-known as, I helped co-found Thrive Senior Living in 2008, brought a lot of technology into the industry. And then in 2016, I left Thrive and co-founded Mainstay Senior Living where we created products for the middle market. So it’s been a nice ride. And we think that now with Lloyd Jones, we see a pivot and a change in the demographics and we’re ready to launch a different component of it.

Olivia Beaton:
Absolutely. And so what does successful aging mean to you and what does that look like exactly?

Tod Petty:
Yeah, so we see a big change coming with COVID-19. We believe COVID-19 exacerbated the changes that were coming anyway, and the changes that were coming as people were aging in place longer, and regulations were allowing them to stay longer. So it was requiring health care. I know everybody was on a bandwagon to build resort type hotel-like amenities, and nothing wrong with that, but you can’t leave the healthcare out. And so when COVID-19 came, the good operators that had good healthcare components did well and the ones that didn’t have it in place struggle. And in the past we’ve looked at healthcare strategies and folks have had… trying to approach it as a ministry approach to the whole man– spirit, soul, and body. Some people talk about the physical intellectual, emotional dining part of it, but we see this moving and evolving something greater. So I’m going to show you a little poster. I hope this shows on our screen here.

Olivia Beaton:
Absolutely, I love that.

Tod Petty:
So, this is… A lot of people are familiar with this from college. This is Maslow’s hierarchy of need, and those first two components of this pyramid are physiological and safety. And that really is what the regulations require us to do in senior housing, and that’s what we’ve concentrated on, 24-hour watchful oversight, safety and security, three meals a day, two snacks, activities, just really when you think about it, the very basic components of providing for our residents. But if you’re going to get the residents to move up this pyramid so that there’s love and belonging, there is meeting the esteem needs of our clients, or actually self-actualization. How do you get someone to self-actualization in our building? It’s not something people have focused in on.

So we launched successful aging that has eight very specific components that will address how we get someone beyond the very, just the physical needs to a new level that, quite frankly, we’re not seeing anybody talk about in the industry. So, Jimmy you want to add to that?

Jimmy Carrion:
Yeah, I think the biggest part of the successful aging, we’re not recreating the wheel. It’s something that’s been part of senior housing for a long time, but what we really want is to make it a priority. The health care needs to be the priority. The program it needs to be the priority, and we don’t want it to just be a selling piece in our brochure. We want to make sure that it’s something that’s going to be that all of our staff, all of our members, even here. The beauty about successful aging, and it’s not just senior housing, even here in corporate. These are eight different things that we can all focus on, like hydration, movement, sensory design. Things that it doesn’t matter what age you are, everyone can take a part of it. And we want to make sure that the culture starts from our corporate offices and then goes into every single building as well.

Tod Petty:
Yeah. And I would say Olivia, real quick, a lot of these things, so we can tie these components that we’ve identified back to the Harvard Medical School’s publishing. I’ll just give you an example here, here’s one of their reports and you can get these for about 40 bucks a piece. So they’re expensive white papers, this is on positive psychology. And then here’s one on improving sleep. And here’s one on just simple stretching. So what these do is these take a holistic approach to life and obviously with the groundbreaking book, I’m not sure what the audience is familiar with Live Long, Die Short, but that… the book capsulizes the truth that… we used to think 20 years ago that, “Well, it’s all genetics. You can’t really control that.”

Very small part aging you can control, and now we find out, well, the majority of aging you can control, based on your lifestyle. And so the goal is not to get diagnosed with the disease and then live 10 years dying long. The goal is to live long and then get ran over by a car and then you die, and die short. And the only way to do that though, is to make sure that they sound simple, but I will share with you, there’s no programming that I’m aware of in most communities right now that enforce or create an atmosphere that puts pressure to make sure certain things happen. So we’re talking about, like Jimmy shared, hydration of the resident. Number one reason for a hospital visit to an emergency room, which causes a urinary tract infection, which causes exacerbated dementia.

All of it, right. There’s malnourishment. The one of the reasons people come to Assisted Living, just movement alone. A person via these studies, a person walking two or three times a week, 30 minutes just walking and having movement helps with dexterity. It helps with circulation and it even helps with release of serotonin into a person’s brain so that you may not need to take an antidepressant. So if we can have these programs of movement or even positive psychology, if you interview a lot of people, they can talk about their amenities, they have digital signage and that’s something we launched back in ‘08, 2010, to be like the hotels to be cool and sexy, which is great having those buildings, but really digital signage is a way to help reinforce in the resident’s mind and our guest’s mind, so we get credit for what we’re doing in the communities.

So when people that have short term memory, don’t remember Barry Manilow visiting four days ago and singing to them and they’re dancing and all the beautiful meals that are served. And they’re talking to their loved one and saying, “Ah, I don’t remember anything. They serve the same food.” It allows the person coming to visit us to see all that mom’s doing, get credit for all the programming we have. And even the senior themselves, the client can say, “Oh, there I am with Barry Manilow, five days ago. I didn’t even remember that.” So it reinforces positive psychology, announcements about Cinco de Mayo coming and the mariachi band, that sets goals for our residents. These are all real specific strategies that create at a successful aging environment and gives us a chance to combat the things that we have to deal with as we age.

Olivia Beaton:
Absolutely. And so hearing all of this and with the focus being on a holistic approach and focusing on what the residents need to truly thrive. I’m curious if this came to you, I know Tod that you spent some time living in senior housing and was this inspired by what you saw was lacking in a sense?

Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. The one year that I went from a 4,400 square foot home to a 400 square foot apartment, and I stayed there for 12 months and I went through, I think the gamut. I was 40 years old, I went through the whole gamut of maybe what an older adult might feel, initially I thought I was going to this small apartment, but once I moved in, I realized, “Hey, I don’t need all the stuff I had; my laundry is being done? They’re serving me meals and checking on me.” But absolutely, I was there 24 hours a day. So the technology that really we put in around 2015, where a variety of senior publications said we had the most advanced technology at the time in the industry, came as a result of things I saw in the community that we could talk about.

But this successful aging platform was really birthed by spending the time with the residents and seeing a lack of the regulations, meeting the bare minimum for someone to sustain physiological life, but not really enhanced their lives. And so as we begin to look at these different components and put them in place, this is where it was birthed out of. So I wanted to share a story, Olivia, if you don’t mind, if you’re loving this.

Olivia Beaton:
Of course, I’d love to hear.

Tod Petty:
So, we use… and there’s variety of these products, but this is the one I use. So I know a lot of our audience is familiar with IN2L. So, we talk about pop psychology, creating an environment that helps a resident have a good mental state of mind. Well, how do you do that? And some people might think at a low level, “Well, let’s put some music, play music that’s good. Let’s connect them to their lives, how they lived it.”

But I’m going to share a really cool way of showing how this practically works out. So we were touring with investors in a Texas property, and we had IN2L tied to a TV. And as you know, IN2L it’s a computer software program. And we were searching Google Earth, and we had all the residents give us where they used to live. So we’re putting their address and they all saw their… Google Earth, you know how it goes around and around and it comes down and there’s their home. And they were really thrilled to see the technology at the time, and they were excited to see their home. So we had a lady there, she’s very depressed. She was very upset with her family. She felt they had abandoned her.

She was from New Jersey, I think Trenton, New Jersey. And she talked about wanting to go home. She just wants to go home. This is not right for her family to leave her there. So she was not engaging, very depressed. And she’s in this room and we’re now going to look at where her home’s at. And so we put the address in and I’m showing the investors they’re really going to like this, we’re changing residents lives and so it goes to her home, the camera comes down and there’s her house, but it’s a Taco Bell.

Olivia Beaton:
Oh my gosh.

Tod Petty:
Her home was razed. It was down, and the Taco Bell was built there. And I thought this is horrible. This is… I can’t connect her to where she used to live, and this is a disaster. And so she looked at it and she said, “Wow.” we’re waiting, and, Oh, I remember the activity director, Jimmy, she said, “Look, your home’s not even there. It’s a Taco Bell, yay!” You know how activity directors are. And we call them director of excitement. But so everybody clapped and was trying to make up for the fact that this was a bad deal.
But anyway, she looked around and she said, “Wow.” She said, “The whole time I’ve been depressed, wanting to go back to my home, and my home doesn’t even exist anymore. This is my home. This is my family.” So from that day forward, so what that did, the simple technology casting imagination down in her home. That was causing her mental anguish every day of trying to go back to a place that doesn’t exist anymore and realizing that place doesn’t exist. And now embracing this very quality product that she has to live in a very resort-type environment with friends her own age. So positive psychology, successful aging. That’s just one aspect of what we’re talking about today, Olivia.

Olivia Beaton:
Absolutely. And I can imagine, obviously the first moment of maybe sadness, but then the relief and the ability to let go and truly embrace her new home and new environment. Something as simple as what you just explained. So I’m curious, that story gives me a little bit of insight, but what do you really notice in the difference between a traditional engagement between what you use as a successful aging technique? What do you notice in residents? How do they interact? How do they engage and how does it improve their overall quality of life?

Tod Petty:
Well, yeah, so I think we have… I don’t know if you can see my board back here.

Olivia Beaton:
I can, yeah.

Tod Petty:
Oh, great. I’ll get out of the way and lean and see Jimmy too. But so we have one of the components, the successful aging is Sensory Design, and this is something that really… I created actually living in the community. I was added later on, very specifically programmed it into our resort building. So Sensory Design would include everything that affects the five physical senses when you walk in a building. So that’s sight, that’s sound, that’s smell. And I we’ve had people drive up underneath our porte-cochere, get out of the car and simply hear music playing. And it set the stage for their home experience because they came into this beautiful music. It was the genre, whether it was the sponsor, the adult child, or whether it was the older adult, it resonated with them. And it tied them to good memories.

It created a programming within them that was resonating positively. So it already helped them prepare for their visit. They walk in the door and then they’re met with aromatherapy and that aromatherapy ties back again to memories. It’s just not, “Hey, the place has to smell good.” The whole goal is to create an atmosphere where your five physical senses are coming alive. The digital signage is creating images, positive images in your mind. So rather than going into a community that has no music, no aromatherapy, no digital signage, no one at the front door, can’t find any staff around you. You have this just deafening silence. That’s very sterile. And it’s very clinical, which allows their own minds to create their version of whatever’s happening. And it may not be right. So this transmutes the experience of the person moving in to a different world. So I have another story I’d like to share along these same lines. And this is relevant to everybody and it’s about how this aromatherapy works, so.

Olivia Beaton:
I am a personal big fan of aromatherapy. So I’m happy to say that.

Tod Petty:
As I was putting this aromatherapy, and this is not someone plugging a Glade or a store-bought $5 scent maker into an outlet. That’s not what we’re talking about. We’re really talking about machines that create different aromas and affect the scent. So I remember our CFO saying, this is like a $100 to do this a month. It might be $200, if you have two stories. I remember him sharing with me, “This is just too expensive. We need to cut this.” And I’m always about, let’s invest and grow.

Let’s put in systems and charge more money, because if we deliver, you can charge and people will pay, but most people are wired, “No, let’s just cut expenses and make more money.” So I said, “You don’t really need this, it doesn’t matter.” So we were at a national Senior Housing industry seminar, and we stayed at the Westin hotel. So we walked into the hotel and I remember him sharing with me. He was like, “Oh, this is just, Westin is awesome because you know that they clean well, they’ve got good housekeeping. You walk into every one of them they all smell the same and it’s just clean. They’re really on top of their staff. And that’s why I will always go here to a Westin,” and as he said that I looked up there was aromatherapy, if that aromatherapy was dispensing a very specific Westin scent called white tea into the atmosphere. And that’s why every Westin you go into smells like white tea. So I think from that day forward he was convinced that, wow, this-

Olivia Beaton:
It worked.

Tod Petty:
It created a perception that wasn’t real. And I know coffee shops. I know even the Yankee Candle shop has being delivered into the area to smell like-

Olivia Beaton:
Disney World does it too.

Tod Petty:
Disney World does it too.

Jimmy Carrion:
And that’s the big thing around successful aging and the programming. It’s not just having their aroma therapy there or having five star meals and pictures of it. It takes really the full team to execute because you need your staff members, you need your cook, your chef, your director of excitement, your executive director, everyone to really be behind this successful aging for it to work, because we could have your healthy diet, but if the chef doesn’t believe in it, that he’s going to cook whatever he wants. So it’s really about implementing it throughout the entire building, throughout the entire staff and the physical plan as well. We want to make sure that the suites are capable of handling our program, our common spaces, our technology, our Wi-Fi. So it really takes them a full vision behind it. And it’s something that the more people that can operate this way, the better that senior housing is going to become.

Olivia Beaton:
For sure. And I know Tod, you mentioned earlier that COVID has thrown our industry into the present, forced us to either adapt with the times or to fall behind. And so as you have this plan of successful aging, what does it look like moving forward? And as we move into hopefully being vaccinated in the near future and hopefully out of this pandemic, how can we continue to grow successful aging within the industry?

Tod Petty:
Yeah, well, I think Olivia, at all the senior housing industry events, whether it’s the National Investment Center or the American Senior Housing association, Healthtac, maybe Leading Age as well. Every one of them have been saying over the last two years, that for the owners of buildings, you need to prepare to run a healthcare building. The people are aging in place longer, regulations allow them to stay in the building. No one… The legislators don’t want their family members going to a nursing home. We need to get staffing up and we need to be prepared to do that. I think a lot of people came into the space, they were thinking, I don’t really care about that, maybe they even thought of it as a commodity or marginalized healthcare, some, instead what’s really going to matter is the big building and the beautiful grand hall and the amenity space.

And I’m not trying to marginalize that, but I’m saying, I believe that people will have to move in a different direction with healthcare. I think it’s great opportunity for a new building, because I think if someone builds a new building and we call it back here, progressive engineered environments. So I think if someone’s building new buildings, they should be a little more costly. But if they can come out of the ground, even near in an area that’s saturated, if they can create a building that when I walk in has infrared temperature checking devices. It has motion faucets in the common areas. It has motion lights to come on and off without any touching. If our residents are wearing wearables that we can do contact tracing with, if we have the air filter in the building more frequently, if it’s going through and HEPA filter and UV lighting to kill the pathogen, if our washers and dryers are in the residents room now, and the laundry’s not being commingled and the caregiver can spend more time in the resident’s room and be with that resident.

And if we had an even a small kitchenette, even in Assisted Living, because the reality is, we’ve always quarantined. It might’ve been C death. It might’ve been flu. It might’ve been a pneumonia. It might’ve been scabies, you name it. This is just raised the level of awareness. So a building that gets built like that, even if the common air and space is smaller, the person putting mom and dad in there are going to choose that community.

Olivia Beaton:
Absolutely because at the end of the day, caring for the most vulnerable population that are susceptible to not only COVID, but the myriad of things that you just listed. At the end of the day, the loved ones, the resident, the caretakers, the community are just looking for their loved ones to be safe and healthy at the end of the day. And I feel like you probably see on your end that it’s worth the investment, especially now when we’ve seen what can happen when something like this takes over the industry.

Exactly. And we know the average weighted age of a person going in to Assisted Living is rising 80 basis points a year. So I think it’s 87 now, it will be 88 in another year or so, it will be 89. And these residents go in there over 85, one in two has dementia. One in three has Alzheimer’s. So the need is going to be healthcare. So still beautiful buildings, but you’re not as important as maybe the bistro, maybe the bar. The residents… that really sold to sons and daughters that wanted their mom and dads from the pension generation to be in a nice place. But I think in the future, it’s all going to be about safety, security, health care, and knowing mom’s getting hydrated, she’s nourished, she has activity. There’s positive psychology that the buildings are equipped to handle a pandemic. And all these things are going to be very important as we move forward. But there’ll be great opportunity for those that can adopt the innovation. I think it’s a very exciting time for us to be living in.

Olivia Beaton:
Absolutely I do as well. And I would just love to hear from both of you, what you’re looking forward to most as you continue to implement this successful aging at Lloyd Jones.

Tod Petty:
Yeah. So I’ll start off. So we’re excited, we have a developer we’re working with that is going to be creating. Hopefully we breaking ground in March, creating this post pandemic building that will be healthcare driven, beautiful place. We’re going to be charging more rent for it. So, but we think we’ve got a unique value proposition. So we get to work with a new model coming out of the ground. We also are working on active adult, 55 plus and independent living, which incorporates everything we’ve done with Assisted Living over the last 10 years. So in those properties, we have a bistro and we do have a bar from four to eight, point-of-sale bar. We have a variety of multi-dining venues because we believe that people that are under 85 that are moving to communities that are fully cognitive, this the Woodstock generation, they still want to have a drink and they can, they still want to meet somebody. And actually, this is very interesting. The highest demographic group that is divorcing now is I think 75 and older, it might be 65, but she got a high divorce rate going on. And you have deaths of a loved one and these folks are… like I said, they’re the Harley Davidson, Woodstock, ‘60s. And they’re like, “Hey, I’m going to be relevant one more time. I’ve got one shot at the apple,” and they’re going to be moving to these new properties. They’re not going to go to Assisted Living. And we’re excited to create a product that will have these highly amenitized areas, but we’ll have a lot of technology, simply great Wi-Fi to bring in health care technology, so they can age in place.

Olivia Beaton:
Absolutely. I love that. And I’m excited to see what you guys continue to do. How about you, Jimmy? What are you looking forward to?

Jimmy Carrion:
Yeah, I think that really just the implementation of the operations and just seeing the shift in healthcare coming up front. I haven’t been involved in senior housing this long, but I can see that there was a bubble of beautiful buildings and only focused on how beautiful and how big we can make them. Whereas, this shift of COVID has made it in how safe are the buildings. What’s the healthcare, what’s the programming. And the great thing in here in Lloyd Jones, we don’t want to keep it a secret. We want to pioneer the message and the more people that can operate in this healthcare way, the better the industry is going to be. The industry is not going to get any smaller, it’s only going to larger. We haven’t even hit the silver tsunami that people are talking about because that’s the worst of tsunami we’re going to hit, when they start turning 80. And so we still have a couple of years, so I think the more operators that can implement successful aging or just health care in place, I think senior housing overall is going to become better.

Olivia Beaton:
Absolutely. And thank you so much for sharing and pioneering this concept and this idea, and hopefully, moving forward, we will continue to see more people invest in this technique of successful aging to care for the most vulnerable population.

Tod Petty:
Thank you, Olivia. It was great speaking with you today. We highly respect your organization, I’ve always had a good time, we’ve come to your events and I’ve gotten a lot of great ideas from it. So we’ll look forward to getting back with everybody when we open back up.

Olivia Beaton:
So do we all, we all thank you both so much.

Tod Petty:
Well, I hope you enjoyed the show today. I want to thank you for your continued support for Senior Housing Unfiltered. As we continue to plunge the depths of successful aging, luxury healthcare, and a new healthcare normal in senior housing for 2021. For more information on this subject, we spoke about today or any of our future healthcare podcasts, you can visit the Harvard Health publishing website, which is sponsored by Harvard Medical School or, of course, you can visit the Lloyd Jones Senior Living website.

Don’t miss our next podcast. We will have a special guest who happens to be one of the architects of the new luxury healthcare model coming on the scene in senior housing, post pandemic, 2021, we will also be introducing a beautiful development coming out of the ground this spring in North Georgia. My team will be previewing new services, a new pricing matrix, a newly designed highly appointed suite accommodations designed, especially for the baby boomers to successfully age. Until next time, we wish the very best for you, your loved ones and all members of your extended family. This is Tod Petty with Senior Housing Unfiltered. Until next time, Godspeed.

“Now is still a great time to buy a multifamily property,” said Nicholas Zolotas, a Realtor at Herrick Lutts Realty Partners in Beverly, Massachusetts. “Each deal has to be taken on a case-by-case basis, but with interest rates being so low and rental demand climbing, even with rising prices you can still achieve a good return.”

As always, he said, purchasing value-add properties where you can renovate to enhance returns is one key path to profitability. But the increased focus on value-add deals is just one of several trends that experts discussed with LoopNet.

Value-Add Properties Provide the Most Opportunities

Unlike the retail sector, which continues to struggle, multifamily commercial properties remain a solid investment, experts said.

“Multifamily [value-add] is the only [sector] I feel confident about right now,” said Cyrus Vaghar of Coldwell-Banker Real Estate in Newton, Massachusetts. “Many developers looking to do mixed-use projects have simply axed the retail on the first floor and are now simply making their buildout a [solely residential] development.”

Most agree that the greatest profit potential exists in value-add buildings, particularly in secondary markets.

We’ve netted fantastic returns for our investors with our strategy of buying value-add properties in burgeoning secondary markets, said Lexi Rich, marketing director for Lloyd Jones, LLC, a multifamily and senior living investment and management firm in Miami. We certainly don’t see this sector of multifamily investment going away any time soon.

Even in areas where rents have plummeted or stagnated, investors who can spruce up a building with well-chosen renovations, such as an updated kitchen with new appliances and finishes or outdoor living space, can draw in tenants quickly and turn a profit.

“Each deal and each market is different,” Rich said. “Generally, we target an ROI of 20% or higher when deciding which value-add initiatives to implement, and then charge a rent premium accordingly once those upgrades are complete.”

She added, “Sometimes, the market calls for a major upgrade package that includes new flooring and quartz countertops, but in other situations, more nuanced upgrades like new cabinet hardware or adding a tile backsplash can make a big difference to refresh a unit and bring in new renters.”

Experts also noted that forward-thinking investors should overhaul properties with the potential for future condo conversions in mind. If you’re investing in Class-B value-add properties, consider upgrades that would permit a profitable sale in the future, said Michelle Mumoli, a broker for Jersey City, New Jersey-based Triplemint, a firm specializing in multifamily and residential new development properties across the state.

She suggested upgrades that can make the units self-sustaining and practical for future condo sales, giving residents greater privacy and more autonomy over their living space.

“Investors should consider gut renovations that may include creating better floor plans, and providing in-unit washer/dryers and tankless water heaters,” she said.

– Click link for full story: https://www.loopnet.com/learn/5-multifamily-trends-to-watch-in-2021/1355101014/

by Evelyn Jozsa
Multi-Housing News

Thanks to a favorable tax environment and a relatively low cost of living, Central Florida’s economy has been steadily advancing in the past few years. The COVID-19 crisis, however, has shaken market fundamentals and put the region’s growth on hold.

Nevertheless, the bumpy road ahead hasn’t intimidated Central Florida multifamily investors, who rely on the region’s favorable demographics to sustain housing demand going forward. “Despite all the challenges 2020 presented, Orlando’s population grew by 61,000 residents, which outpaced fast-growing metropolitan areas like Atlanta; Austin, Texas, and Tampa, Fla.,” Lloyd Jones CEO & Chairman Chris Finlay told Multi-Housing News.

In the interview below, Finlay and Starwood Capital Group Managing Director James Kane provide insights on Central Florida’s multifamily market and share business strategies that might help investors stay afloat under current economic conditions.

https://www.multihousingnews.com/post/how-central-florida-investors-are-recalibrating-their-strategy/

Millennials are proving to be a dominant force in shaping trends in both real estate and retail with their strong preference for apartment living (12.3 percent plan to “always rent”), as well as their enthusiastic support of the burgeoning “subscription economy,” a growing business model that includes subscription boxes, in which subscribers receive products on a regular basis, such as Stitch Fix for clothes and Dollar Shave for razors and grooming products.[i] In addition to subscriptions, this consumer group is also turning to rental services for everything from high-end furniture to designer clothes. For millennials, subscriptions and rentals are about convenience and affordability, and that’s also why they prefer apartment living to homeownership.

The power of millennial consumers

In the U.S. there are 83 million millennials, who leverage $200 billion in annual buying power. As the largest consumer group in the economy, they wield the most buying power—and they’re choosing to spend their dollars in much different ways than previous generations, with a focus on experiences rather than ownership.[ii] For millennials, the ease and affordability of subscription boxes, rental services and the apartment lifestyle are all in close alignment; all these choices give them more time, more convenience, and more freedom.

Driving the subscription & rental economy

Millennials love subscriptions. According to a study by Deloitte, when it comes to entertainment subscriptions, such as Spotify, Netflix, and Xbox Game Pass, millennials have 17 subscriptions on average—more than any other generation—and 42 percent of them said they planned to subscribe to more services in the coming year. [iii] Subscription boxes are also highly favored among millennials, with 31 percent subscribing to subscription boxes, compared with 21 percent of Gen Xers and 8 percent of baby boomers.[iv]

Rental services, such as Rent the Runway for designer fashion, and Fernish or Feather, for furniture, are also popular with millennials, in part because the concept dovetails with the growing consumer consciousness toward more sustainability. The rise of higher-end furniture rental is also fueled in part by the apartment lifestyle; without being tied down with heavy-to-move pieces like sofas and beds, millennials are able to more freely move to explore jobs, neighborhoods, and relationships.[v]

Millennials and the appeal of apartment living

The millennial cohort is renting longer and redefining the concept of homeownership as the American Dream.[vi] With renting, millennials aren’t limited by geography, and they also avoid the hassle of home maintenance and unexpected housing costs. Millennials prioritize experience over ownership, and with apartment living, renters can enjoy amenities such as co-working spaces, on-site fitness centers, and smart technology conveniences such as package lockers—all conveniences that add ease to daily living.  It’s clear that as the largest of generations, millennials will continue to have a major impact on the rental market, and that multifamily communities will need to include an array of experiences and amenities to cater to their wants and needs.[vii]

[i]     https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/2019-millennial-homeownership-report

[ii]    https://www.expapp.com/fan-behavior-series-millennials/

[iii]   https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/deloitte-covid-19-accelerates-cycle-of-paid-entertainment-subscriptions-and-cancellations-301081484.html

[iv]   https://finance.yahoo.com/news/millennials-shaping-u-retail-trends-210702715.html

[v]    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/08/style/rent-subscription-clothing-furniture.html

[vi]   https://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-renting-homes-instead-of-buying-2019-7

[vii]  https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/2019-millennial-homeownership-report

From common areas to amenities, shifts are happening in the design of senior housing spaces to meet the evolving needs of both residents and staff. For owners and investors in senior-living housing, it’s important to work with an operator who is at the forefront of these new trends and knows how to execute them.

A paradigm shift from hospitality to healthcare
Senior living has always been a blend of hospitality and healthcare, and now the paradigm is shifting toward healthcare, which Senior Housing News has identified as one of the top senior housing trends for 2021. [i] The traditional senior-housing community attracts seniors with a luxury building that features amenities like a resort-style grand lobby, five-star dining experiences, pool, sauna and salon services. Yet the past year has meant a renewed focus on care and safety. “From 55+ active adult all the way up to skilled nursing, the servicing and management of older adults needs to balance both hospitality and healthcare,” said Tod Petty, executive vice president of Lloyd Jones Senior Living, which provides professional management services to senior-housing owners and developers. “When you work with an experienced operator, you can have both exceptional design and care in the same model. And you can have really great design at any budget.”

All baby boomers are not created equal
Within the 57- to 75-year-old baby boomer-bracket, seniors need different levels of care and require different programming, planning and design. It’s essential to have an understanding of the specific needs of the target demographic before design even begins. “Across the continuum of care, you have to have an understanding on the front end about who your target demographic is and who you are designing those buildings for,” said Melissa Banko, founder and principal of Banko Design, an interior design firm that specializes in the senior-living market.

Creating places where residents feel at home
One of the paramount concerns when designing for senior living is that the communities should feel like home. Balancing the residential allure with commercial needs while supporting the care component requires an interior design firm that understands this unique combination of deliverables. For example, successful lighting design for seniors means understanding how vision changes as one ages. As we age,  our pupils become smaller and less responsive to changes in ambient lighting. Because of these changes, people in their 60s need three times more ambient light for comfortable reading than those in their 20s.[ii] “When we talk about light levels for seniors, it’s about balancing natural light and ambient light so they can successfully navigate their living spaces,” said Banko. “This includes outdoor pathway lighting, reducing glare, and appropriate task lighting.” Beyond lighting, there’s also ensuring there are slip-resistant finishes on flooring, and that materials are easily wipeable and cleanable and will hold up to constant cleaning and sanitizing.

Design strategies for senior-living staff
Designing successful senior housing includes creating layouts that support staff. Planning for day-to-day activities and ensuring that staff have the spaces they need are essential parts of the design work.

“Space planning that takes operations into consideration is going to be more efficient and can also boost employee satisfaction,” said Petty. “Asking the right questions will help create the right spaces. Such as, ‘What is the most effective travel path for delivering food from the kitchen to multiple dining rooms? Where are your care stations for distribution of medication? Are they in the right location for the staff?’”

Renovation and retrofitting
According to Environments in Aging, the pandemic has fueled more interest in modest, but impactful, renovations to existing facilities to protect residents and staff, as well as create a safe and secure environment that can mitigate the risk of infection.[iii] “It might be breaking down a large room to create a more flexible space,” said Petty. “It’s important to still create spaces for socializing, but to be strategic about it.” Technology advances to enhance environments will also be key, noted Petty. “Upgraded HVAC systems to provide more outside air circulation, the addition of UV light disinfection, and installation of touchless faucets are just a few of the tailored renovations that can promote safety.”

A new era in senior housing
Moving forward, design will play an integral role in how senior housing evolves. Collaboration between investors/owners, operators and interior design and planning firms is key to reexamining growth strategies and solutions to meet the non-traditional demands that have emerged out of the pandemic.

For more information about designing for the future of senior living, listen to a recent episode of the Senior Housing Unfiltered podcast, where Tod Petty and Melissa Banko speak further about this topic.

[i]     https://seniorhousingnews.com/2021/01/02/top-senior-housing-trends-for-2021/

[ii]    https://www.2020eyesonline.com/how-your-vision-changes-as-you-age

[iii]   https://efamagazine.com/trends/tailored-approach-to-renovations/

Built in 2005, the garden-style community consists of a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom floor plans. Amenities include a resort-style pool, BBQ pavilion, fitness center, volleyball court and business center. Lloyd Jones’ plans for the property include $2.7 million in capital improvements that include a two-level interior renovation package program comprising 95 percent of the units.

“The acquisition of Arium Grandewood is part of our strategic investment plan focused on established Orlando properties that are centrally located and well-positioned for value-add opportunities,” said Ashley Socarras, EVP of investments at Lloyd Jones.

https://www.connect.media/lloyd-jones-acquires-306-unit-apartment-community-in-orlando/

Growthspotter

By AMANDA RABINES

Lloyd Jones, a Miami-based real estate investment, development, and management firm, is actively looking to invest in Central Florida multifamily properties.

The company blasted out a press release last week, publicizing its most recent acquisition in the market– a 306-unit apartment community directly east of Orlando’s tourism corridor– along with its intent to focus on picking up more Orlando properties that are “well-positioned for value-add opportunities,” Ashley Socarras, executive vice president of investments, said in the release.

Click link below for the full story:

Link (subscription required): https://www.growthspotter.com/news/residential-property-developments/multi-family/gs-news-lloyd-jones-grande-pointe-central-florida-investment-20210201-ia4zq4etyndr3h5kv2afvxofdm-story.html

Built in 2005, the garden-style community consists of a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom floor plans. Amenities include a resort-style pool, BBQ pavilion, fitness center, volleyball court and business center. Lloyd Jones’ plans for the property include $2.7 million in capital improvements that include a two-level interior renovation package program comprising 95 percent of the units.

“The acquisition of Arium Grandewood is part of our strategic investment plan focused on established Orlando properties that are centrally located and well-positioned for value-add opportunities,” said Ashley Socarras, EVP of investments at Lloyd Jones.

https://www.connect.media/lloyd-jones-acquires-306-unit-apartment-community-in-orlando/